2027 Election: Tinubu Is Already Winning, Unless Atiku and Others Change Gear

 2027 Election:

Tinubu Is Already Winning, Unless Atiku and Others Change Gear

By: Arewa Oluwaseun

If the recent coalition effort under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) involving former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is anything to go by, then Nigeria’s political climate is about to witness another high-stake confrontation. But let us not deceive ourselves, if the intention behind this realignment is truly to unseat the Emperor at Aso Rock, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Jagaban of Bogu, then the coalition actors have an Everest to climb and a lion to tame. And unless they are ready to bleed for it, they should prepare to be buried by it. Nigerians of today no longer vote just by party platforms; they vote by perceived capability and emotional relatability.

Let us be blunt this time around, the year 2027 general elections will not be a tea party. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not just an incumbent; he is a seasoned, strategic master of Nigeria’s modern political chessboard. From AD to AC to ACN and ultimately the birth of the APC, Tinubu has consistently played the long game. He built structures, sacrificed ambitions, made deals, paid political debts and outlived rivals, all in a bid to occupy Nigeria’s most exalted seat. And today, he sits there not by luck, but by legacy of strategic consistency.

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar must take a lesson from this. He must study not only Tinubu’s rise but also his restraint. In 2015, it was Tinubu who saw that his dream of vice presidency would be dead on arrival under a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Rather than collapse the coalition or allow ego to override strategy, he stepped aside for Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from a very dominant denomination. That act of strategic sacrifice of a popular Muslim-Christian ticket formed the foundation that sold the party to the Nigerian people and led to the fall of the PDP and Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. In 2019, the feast was reenacted and the seat was retained with little to no effort by the APC. Tinubu chose not to eat alone and in 2023, the banquet came back to him.

That is the roadmap the ADC coalition must now study. It is not enough to gather political juggernauts and hope they’ll move the mountain. From Peter Obi to David Mark, from El-Rufai to Aregbesola and others, this is a gathering of warhorses; not saints or saviours. They have all been in the power loop and understand its grammar. But understanding is not enough. Will they sacrifice? or they are there simply for revenge and recycled personalities? That’s the million-vote questions.

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, as the face of this coalition, has the bigger burden. He must be prepared to be the Tinubu of the opposition. That means building institutions, sacrificing self, assembling talents without insecurity and staying the course regardless of immediate outcomes. If he sees himself solely as the default candidate, then he may end up becoming the reason the coalition fractures. History is watching to see whether he will carry it with wisdom or crush it with his ambition. If indeed this coalition is to be more than a masquerade of egos, Atiku must begin to imagine himself not as the candidate but as a statesman. That would be the boldest act of political maturity he can give to this alliance. 

And this is not a call to hand over the flag to Peter Obi either, it is a call for the coalition to prioritize winning over wanting. Nigeria’s next president must be someone acceptable to the wider demographic, but will they allow such a candidate to emerge? Will ambition take a back seat? Or will they bicker their way to failure and hand Tinubu a second term on a platinum platter?

Let us not forget in 2023, APC weathered the storm of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, the naira crunch and anti-Tinubu federal manipulations, yet they triumphed. Why? Because opposition parties were fragmented. LP went one way, PDP another, NNPP on a different train and the man who had only one bullet fired it with focus. Tinubu is not unbeatable, but disunity will make him immortal. The ADC coalition must understand the stakes. Tinubu, like Obasanjo and Buhari before him, wants to complete two terms, if possible manipulate the joint national assemblies of House of Representative and House of Senate to rewrite the constitution to hand him over a life president or at least if possible a third term bid as we heard of during Obasanjo's PDP regime between 1999-2007. 

It is very certain, President Tinubu will not hand over power because people are tired. He will use incumbency, national structure, intelligence and timing to try and keep it. And he has already started, we all could feel it, we can see the political massaging, the realignments, the northern outreach and the economic recalibration jointly ongoing even with the involvement of his immediate family and close political associates led by the wife, our distinguished first lady, Emeritus Senator Oluremi Tinubu, the mother-god to all Bourdillon disciplines. The effort of the conventional constituted first son office without portfolio, yet moving mountains, through the unconstitutional office of the son of the president occupied by Seyi Tinubu is superb and all actions pointing towards the ultimate goal.

To defeat the almighty Tinubu, you need more than a press release, you need a party with structure, strategy, synergy and most importantly sacrifice. Everyone in this new coalition must be ready to die to self so the alliance can live. Otherwise, the coalition is not a party, it is a pageant and the winner is already in Aso Rock. So here’s the final charge; Atiku, lead if you must, but only if you can first lead yourself away from personal ambition. Obi, push if you will, but not at the cost of the mission. You must be willing to work within a shared platform without appearing aloof or ideologically rigid. Aregbesola, Mark, El-Rufai and others contribute your voice, but don’t drown the rhythm. Coalition without cohesion is catastrophe. And unless this ADC-led movement becomes more than an elite agreement, unless it reaches the grassroots with clarity and conviction, it will amount to a wasted headline.

ADC coalition stands at a crossroads, one path leads to strategic coordination, collective sacrifice and a real shot at unseating an incumbent president. The other path, littered with ego, poor planning and personal calculations which leads straight to defeat. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not unbeatable but he is technically formidable. And unless the opposition thinks in layers, acts in sequence and sacrifices in unity, they are not contesting against Tinubu, but rather, unknowingly campaigning for his second term. The clock is ticking, Nigeria and Nigerians are watching and history is waiting.

Either they defeat Tinubu together or Tinubu will defeat them one by one. The choice is theirs, the clock is ticking.

e-signed:

Arewa Oluwaseun,

Political Analyst | Columnist | Voice of the People